Thursday, July 25, 2013


Patrick released another stellar quarterly report today.

Back when I first came up with a long term $20-$30 valuation, my DCF models were somewhat dependent on the long term recovery of manufactured homes, which used to be half of their revenue and are now less than 20%.  As well as they have managed the past few years, there could easily be a couple more doubles left here, if manufactured housing ever sees a recovery.

This is what I said in early November, 2011, with Patrick at around $2.50:
This is one of the easy ones.  This is up 30-40% in the last month, and I hate to chase stocks up, but at these prices, I have to say, back up the truck.  This is worth easily 5 times what is sells for today, and all of their target markets are in slumps.  They should see significant cyclical growth over the next several years.  There is the possibility of a "10-bagger" here, and I don't see any unusual risk.  No need for a 40 page report.  My report on this one is "Dude...come on."

Who would have thought that that forecast was too bearish?! Ha!

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