JOLTS data today did not confirm my concerns about early indicators. This is good news. 12 month moving averages for Job Openings, Hires, and Quits are all at cyclical highs and Layoffs are at a cyclical low. Most of the improvement was from positive revisions in the July data.
The data suggests that the decrease in the unemployment rate should be accelerating, which confirms the direction of the last couple of labor reports, even if the establishment data has been a smidgen disappointing. An unemployment rate of 6.5% sometime next fall is looking reasonable.
Yields in Eurodollar markets look like they ticked down slightly on the JOLTS news today. So, either the market disagrees with my assessment, or there is some expectation of a Fed overreaction.
I don't see any reason to question the current short term yield curve, and it looks like we are on track to leave the zero lower bound sometime in late 2014 - at least for a little while.