This first graph is monthly changes, in thousands of people. This is not a cumulative graph, folks. The divergence in the employment and unemployment indicators is momentum. That means that each month is improving at a faster pace than the months before.
Below, I have updates of the graphs I had done, comparing the North Carolina stats to the national stats. The North Carolina unemployment rate is down a whopping 2% since Emergency Unemployment Insurance was terminated.
I still have some question about whether any of the labor movements before June, which weren't positive, might have been related to the policy. But, here's what I said two months ago:
It looks plausible that the North Carolina experience will support both of my estimates that (1) unemployment is about 1% higher than it would be without EUI and that (2) LFP is slightly higher (less than 0.2%).Holy cow, look at this graph, of unusual movements in the North Carolina data, compared to the national data. LFP down about 0.2% and unemployment down more than 1% since the end of the policy. I need to start charging you people some serious cash-ola for this information.
Here are all the graphs of North Carolina compared to the national numbers.