Friday, February 7, 2014

January Employment (Pt. 2)

Oh, I forgot to update the flows information.  Here's the graph, updated for January:

This is a strong showing for January.  The flow from "Not in Labor Force" to "Employed" came back with a vengeance.  The previous decline in that category was odd, but that trend has been eliminated now.  I thought at first that this was just due to population adjustments, but the BLS notes say that the adjustments are not nearly large enough to explain that jump.  Of course, this data tends to be noisy, but the size of the shift is a pretty clear statement about the pattern we want to see in that series of increasing flows over time.

The Employment to Unemployment flow reverted back to the trend, but the trend is still decreasing, and it remains well below the Unemployment to Employment flow.

Net shifts were firmly into the Labor Force and into Employment.

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