Here are the graphs of the estimated escape from the zero lower bound, inferred from treasury yields. The schedule of the escape continues apace, in the face of the taper, suggesting that we might finally be heading back to normalcy.
The first graph is the expected date of the first short term rate increase on a stationary calendar.
The second graph is the expected date of the first short term rate increase, measured in number of years from present. As hopeful as this looks, it's also a reminder that we are basically just getting back to where we were 3 years ago, when QE2 ended. How much further into a recovery would we be today if QE2 had been maintained until sustainable inflation pressures were established?