Here is a simple model of unemployment, based on the long term linear relationship between the unemployment rate and the insured unemployment rate, with a trend built in for very long term unemployed. This suggests an unemployment rate of about 5.9%, with an expected range of about 5.7-6.1%. Consensus is being reported at 6.1%. I think this could be another month with a surprise gap down.
|The final data point is projected. Remaining points are historical.|
EUI was passed, almost unanimously, and signed by President Bush, in June 2008. It was by far the most aggressive and generous EUI program in US history. It baffles me that in July 2014, after having been passed with broad bi-partisan votes, it is being used as a political cudgel when the portion of the unemployment rolls that it would apply to is completely recovered. Even as far back as December, very short term unemployment hit an all time record low. I trust The People's Romance will soldier on.