On Feb. 12, the #GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in Q12016 is 2.7% https://t.co/PkWNFJQxO0 pic.twitter.com/DUWSOb5Yg0— Atlanta Fed (@AtlantaFed) February 12, 2016
3: Mortgage debt remains flat. I have bitten on a couple of false starts regarding housing recovery. But, at this point, I am resigned. I'm mostly on the sidelines until this madness sorts itself out. In a sane world, the homebuilders would be leading a sit-in at the steps of the U.S. Congress and at least one candidate would make housing expansion - including mortgage expansion - a centerpiece of their platform.
4: Here is an interesting graph that ties in to my recent post on the age-related effects of the boom and bust. Here, we can see how the 65+ group, which is very heavy in equity and is less vulnerable to labor markets, has sailed through the period as if nothing happened. Meanwhile, the under-45 groups experienced newfound access to mortgage credit markets until the crisis, and have been especially stressed since then because they tend to have higher leverage.
Cheap debt: The avg 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt than a 65 y/o in 2003 https://t.co/WJfmcJLNfy pic.twitter.com/y8euqq5swZ— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 12, 2016