As we moved through 2015, the Fed decided to impose a rate hike, and so, finally, the expected date of the rate hike became anchored in time, and we finally caught up to it in December. Since then, the yield curve has flattened sharply. In fact, we may be near the equivalent of an inverted yield curve now, with forward rates boosted by distortions of the zero lower bound.
In the most recent rate hike periods, rates have risen by about 50 to 70 basis points per quarter. During QE3, the slope implied future rising rates of only about 15 to 35 basis points per quarter. I suspect this partly reflected expectations of slower rises and partly reflected expectations that we would not leave the zero lower bound.
Now that the Fed hiked rates, the slope has declined all the way to about 8 or 9 basis points per quarter. There is also a lot of uncertainty about the date of future rate hikes. This is so low that I think it reflects a very strong expectation that rate hikes will never come. Long term rates in Japan were in the 2% range until recently during a long period of low short term rates. This is basically a flat yield curve.
The fact that there isn't a unanimous call for the immediate reversal of the rate hike is pretty much the picture of our dysfunctional era. We know what we want, "and deserve to get it good and hard."