tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post4743308342319865463..comments2024-03-29T04:50:03.060-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: December 2017 CPIKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-10793025167966519362022-04-18T18:49:36.400-07:002022-04-18T18:49:36.400-07:00URGENT LOAN IS AVAILABLE NOW
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He wanted in such a way to escape to Canada with Donna by his side. <a href="http://gojivitafacts.com/testomaster/" rel="nofollow">http://gojivitafacts.com/testomaster/</a><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17370017815659565641noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-72496727539647356622018-01-17T12:48:39.428-07:002018-01-17T12:48:39.428-07:00I was just at a presentation this morning where 1....I was just at a presentation this morning where 1.5 million was the level purported to be neutral. That seems about right to me. If we settle at a new regime, where fewer households can be buyers, then residential investment will probably be lower going forward, and if the mortgage market is opened up to middle class and young borrowers on the margin again, then I think the market could demand 2 million units per year for many years. In the meantime, it could be that rent inflation would subside somewhat around the 1.5 million level, but the market is strange now because of the shifting equilibrium. I think rents in general are high now because many households live in homes that reflect housing demand of the previous credit market regime, which have a higher market value than the house they would live in under the current regime. So, demand is sort of inflated. I think that eventually, the new regime will be reflected in lower housing consumption, and rents would decline as a percentage of incomes in any case back to long term norms in Open Access cities.<br /><br />In a healthy market today, I would like to see building at 2 million units or more and rent inflation well below general inflation. That would reflect a true return to affordability in the Open Access areas.<br /><br />On your graph, I think accounting for the over 65 years group would be important, but it doesn't look like there is an easy way to do that at Fred.<br /><br />Thanks for the input!Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-67796532862602490402018-01-17T12:20:06.973-07:002018-01-17T12:20:06.973-07:00What level of housing starts would you consider ap...What level of housing starts would you consider appropriate to bringing down housing costs? I notice that now we're at about 1.3 million starts per year. I think the housing stock is about 135 million, so I suppose we're in the neighborhood of 1% growth per year. Of course, it's also true that new housing is larger than it used to be, so in terms of square feet added the growth is probably faster. Here is a little chart I made:<br />https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=hA8q<br />I am wondering what would impact housing averages (not welfare) more: building more in closed access or open access cities. Closed access cities have more room to fall, but units there are on average more expensive.<br /><br />Keep up the good work!Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10874343904654921159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-41318253784229011452018-01-16T07:32:26.084-07:002018-01-16T07:32:26.084-07:00CPI sans rent at 0.7%. A measurement error from ze...CPI sans rent at 0.7%. A measurement error from zero. Unit labor costs falling. <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com