tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post4854740426159134921..comments2024-03-29T04:50:03.060-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: April 2015 Employment ReportKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-65533369242315763062015-05-11T15:28:29.123-07:002015-05-11T15:28:29.123-07:00Interesting. Thanks for the link. I wish I could...Interesting. Thanks for the link. I wish I could see their data on the different countries. They all seem to have had a temporary bump in ownership rates, but the timing of the peaks don't seem to match up in a systematic way. I wonder what all is going on there.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-3087811518058331882015-05-11T14:10:06.922-07:002015-05-11T14:10:06.922-07:00Interesting piece about housing: http://www.telegr...Interesting piece about housing: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11597496/Owning-a-home-is-falling-out-of-fashion-around-the-world.htmlSeannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-66924655877179189412015-05-10T01:14:48.710-07:002015-05-10T01:14:48.710-07:00I suspect rates go down. I think the Fed will make...I suspect rates go down. I think the Fed will make the same mistakes as the BOJ. Too timid, fighting the last war (inflation).<br />There are $12 trillion in bank deposits and money funds about earning nothing. Supply and demand. <br />The Fed needs to consider quantitative easing as conventional policy and near permanent policy.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-45932754961445228172015-05-09T16:43:46.403-07:002015-05-09T16:43:46.403-07:00Good points. Thanks for the input, dlr.Good points. Thanks for the input, dlr.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-77390294106114525962015-05-09T14:01:38.348-07:002015-05-09T14:01:38.348-07:00So, a day like today with a lukewarm employment re...<i>So, a day like today with a lukewarm employment report might increase the escape velocity concern but decrease the Fed brakes concern.</i><br /><br />An alternative, somewhat similar, way to frame Friday's story says that employment report had in line payroll numbers amid below expectations AHE growth and a slightly increased LFPR. So you have a slight downtick in the consensus NAIRU (or natural rate, whatever) which is positive for stocks while supporting a slightly lower front half of the FF curve given the loosening of policy that comes from a fixed inflation gap and a small positive surprise on potential output. Note that far forward rates didn't move much so you don't have to start talking yourself into some strange portfolio balance or term premium effect on the 10YR for this move. dlrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04670525946774419874noreply@blogger.com