tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post4881318748105055485..comments2024-03-29T03:45:57.883-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: Housing, A Series: Part 65 - Reasoning from a Daisy ChainKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-56901799493914953112016-01-06T19:17:56.174-07:002016-01-06T19:17:56.174-07:00Being a landlord is not a bad gig but if you don&#...Being a landlord is not a bad gig but if you don't have great tenants boy can it come with headaches. My father rented houses out for a long time but, bad ones can really wreck a house. I wonder if doing regular inspections would be something that a landlord could do just to make sure things don't go down.<br /><br /><a href="http://markbentleypa.blogspot.com/2015/08/fighting-for-your-landowners-rights.html" rel="nofollow">Daniel Roberson @ Mark Bentley PA</a>Daniel Robersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15651694091995505661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-85326841826849879082015-10-17T20:15:05.190-07:002015-10-17T20:15:05.190-07:00I agree. It should be a simple story. The histor...I agree. It should be a simple story. The history of these cities as sources of opportunity is hardly a secret. "Let them in." Unfortunately, progressivism has become reactionary in this country, so those who should respond to that simple story instead oppose any opportunity that isn't distributed and shaped in precisely the way they demand, and only in such a way that the city doesn't change, which means they basically oppose opportunity or growth. It's a shame.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-49339034136043844852015-10-17T03:57:40.834-07:002015-10-17T03:57:40.834-07:00The litany of second-order effects and unintended ...The litany of second-order effects and unintended consequences is difficult to incorporate into a narrative for voters. I wish mainstream journalists would bring Edward Glaeser type findings to the masses and swing the pendulum on this one. In some ways it's a framing issue...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08674027471773407507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-14007560597261713632015-10-06T18:49:47.893-07:002015-10-06T18:49:47.893-07:00Great, great comments, Ed and Ghengis. And, Ed, t...Great, great comments, Ed and Ghengis. And, Ed, that may be my favorite newspaper article ever. I've been digging into this issue for a year or so, and in the past few months it seems like recognition of the problem has started seeping into the national conversation. It's a good sign.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-8626363400869660982015-10-06T16:36:10.010-07:002015-10-06T16:36:10.010-07:00Donald Trump has his issue backwards. u don't ...Donald Trump has his issue backwards. u don't need to build a wall to keep people out. u just have to build nothing (although building nothing turns out to be a lot more expensive, and not just in opportunity cost)<br /><br />witness - a million fewer illegal residents in the US since 2007, even while Mexico's population has continued to grow and the northern estados spasmed with irregular warghengis blondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05370680836937017757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-47350604479205943072015-10-06T14:31:34.707-07:002015-10-06T14:31:34.707-07:00This article makes points similar to mine, far mor...This article makes points similar to mine, far more coherently: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/06/there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-city-that-has-run-out-of-room/" rel="nofollow">There is no such thing as a city that has run out of room</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799820560492366145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-77103147352509036722015-10-06T14:27:39.101-07:002015-10-06T14:27:39.101-07:00Not only low-income laborers: in various Silicon V...Not only low-income laborers: in various Silicon Valley towns there's talk of subsidized housing for teachers, police officers, firefighters, and so on. One imagines a future where elite techies and financiers are the only players left in the free market, driving the value of single-story 1950s tract houses skyward, while everyone else is put on a waiting list for a government-assigned housing unit.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799820560492366145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33424371271037335322015-10-05T09:32:28.329-07:002015-10-05T09:32:28.329-07:00Great comment, Ed. Frequent commenter Benjamin Co...Great comment, Ed. Frequent commenter Benjamin Cole has pointed out that the problem extends beyond the core cities, and he has a good point, and your comment is along the same line. There really would be an incredible amount of human development and opportunity if the whole corridor from San Francisco to San Jose expanded its housing supply.<br /><br />But, what I find especially galling about the core cities, especially San Francisco and Manhattan, is that the whole point of their existence and the source of their value is the density itself. The reason people move to Manhattan is explicitly the density. Then, you see stories about the housing crisis, and everyone in the story basically says, "Look, we're not against building in general. We just collectively will oppose anything you could possible propose."<br /><br />But, here's the thing. You see something like this graphic:<br />http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2015/07/housing-tax-policy-series-part-41-free.html<br />and you realize, it is possible to build very dense space in Manhattan, as long as it is commercial. So, even though it looks like there is a sort of emergent obstacle to density in general, there isn't. There is only an emergent obstacle to residential housing.<br /><br />I think that specific issue points to the problem that we have. We have two conservative political movements in this country - one we call conservative and one we call progressive. The progressive pretense is to always take a position against producers and developers. Since in commercial building there is no purported party that will be rhetorically ennobled by their advocacy, they leave commercial development alone. But, in residential, they explicitly argue, in effect, that they like the city just the way it was after they moved there, and the wrong sorts of people are moving in - except now that is rich people instead of immigrant laborers. It's the perfect position for sustaining their pretenses of egalitarianism while creating ultra-conservative outcomes. They can always take vocal stands against developers, complain about the new rich neighbors, and advocate for affordable housing for low income laborers. Since their activism will prevent there from ever being an actual functional housing market for low income laborers, they can play act like they are liberals while perpetually enforcing ultra-conservativism. And the end result is that these incredible cities that have always been engines of opportunity - and potentially now more than ever - are instead sources of financial stress, where opportunity is limited to high income workers and landowners. The combination of the scale of economic obstruction and self-righteousness is dazzling.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-48472658850320311012015-10-05T05:55:46.031-07:002015-10-05T05:55:46.031-07:00Great post. I think someone could do a whole serie...Great post. I think someone could do a whole series delving into just why, in country full of landscapes like the background image of this page, people worry about density and overpopulation. Some quirk of American, if not human, psychology informs politics ranging from national immigration policy to regional and city-level zoning regulations.<br /><br />A few years ago, a new apartment building was proposed on the site of an old lumberyard in my neighborhood. Connected to freeways by a 4-lane relatively traffic-free road, literally across the street from a commuter rail station, and just a few blocks from a walkable downtown, it was about as close as you can get to the perfect spot for a high-rise. Zoning limited the height to 4 stories, of course. Parking would be vastly overprovisioned with an average of 1.5 spaces per unit. Oh, the rhetoric from some of the neighbors! Flyers were distributed portraying Mountain View as Manhattan, with people stacked cheek-by-jowl up to the clouds. It would be a parking nightmare, a noisy blight, a criminal hotspot.<br /><br />The apartment building was approved after all, with modifications reducing the density (stepping down to 2 stories on the sides adjacent to existing single-family detached homes), and further increasing car parking. The results are predictable: it's a nice building, there's no parking armageddon, and Mountain View still isn't Manhattan. The rents in the new building are astounding, since the owner quite naturally targeted it to the techies with no or small families who can afford it. (And multiple levels of underground parking aren't cheap to build.) Now the only complaints are about how new development just brings in more of the same rich outsiders.<br /><br />So, the politics and the psychology. Why is "Manhattanization" considered the worst thing that can happen to a city? (To misquote Yogi Berra, no one would want to live someplace that's so crowded.) Why do arguments about new development always start and end with car parking and traffic? Why do people always associate density with crime and low quality of life, despite vast evidence to the contrary?<br /><br />I suspect part of it is just a general resistance to change and fear of the unknown. People become invested in their surroundings, and no one is more invested than a homeowner who's poured most of his or her life savings into a tiny dump of a house in a fantastically sought-after neighborhood. Even the author of this comment wouldn't necessarily like to see zoning regulations disappear overnight--the hog-rendering plant next door, and all that.<br /><br />But calling people grumpy curmudgeons isn't a particularly effective way to assuage their fears and change their minds about development.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799820560492366145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-50950813324083615012015-10-04T00:10:06.602-07:002015-10-04T00:10:06.602-07:00I did not intend that pun. You caught the comic al...I did not intend that pun. You caught the comic alpha before I did. I also misspeak if I seem to disapprove of your research direction. In fact, I retract my previous comment on the grounds that<br /><br />1. u do more than enough explicit measurement and description of actually existing and pending reality - and how! I'm an eager and grateful student - to merit some normative water cooler talk<br />2. politics never stops, talk is reasonably priced, and the cause is noble<br /><br />I think watching MR's Dani Rodrik interview infused me with some wilier-than-thou second bestismMortimer Randolphhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461337204738090189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-89499446828379918582015-10-03T09:34:17.878-07:002015-10-03T09:34:17.878-07:00Great comment, Mortimer.
"no use dwelling......Great comment, Mortimer.<br /><br />"no use dwelling..." pun intended? Ha! I think I'm mostly done with the topic, but as I increase the depth and breadth of the topic, I keep noticing new implications. I just realized recently that I was well past part 30 before I realized the importance of the metropolitan supply constrictions, and that has become the core of my narrative now. Maybe I'll get to part 80 and uncover an ancient prophecy about a future glazier who will be our salvation.<br /><br />There are issues, such as the way our decentralized regulatory and zoning system probably undermines automation and standardization, that could probably have more potential to improve housing efficiency and quality. I probably won't get into that. I'm just following my nose until I run out of things that seem related to my topic, are interesting to me, and that I have the tools to analyze.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-43495151510765615332015-10-02T23:46:11.511-07:002015-10-02T23:46:11.511-07:00u tell an important story, Kevin. that couple movi...u tell an important story, Kevin. that couple moving from SF experiences a miniature divorce. to b with each other as adults, as householders, they give up the place they chose for themselves, likely where they found each other. in different lights u can see my wrinkles. She fell in love with San Francisco Mortimer, not sun belt downtown gridlock without the downtown Mortimer. the housing situation retards human capital at work and in love. the novels r set in paris, the paintings in the countryside. most of us r exiles from both<br /><br />no use dwelling on a permanent nuisance, tho. monetary policy is the bit that's run by philosophersMortimer Randolphhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03461337204738090189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-18357160458478150902015-10-02T18:27:32.840-07:002015-10-02T18:27:32.840-07:00All excellent points, Benjamin. The size thing is...All excellent points, Benjamin. The size thing is just easier to picture in a story, but you're right. That's my point on the couple in the story. Their real housing consumption goes down even though they move to a larger house that requires more physical investment. That's the double whammy that the housing problem creates. The couple is less productive in Phoenix and the house requires more capital investment for a less valuable home. Both of these issues lower productivity.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-37422008129730831352015-10-02T17:23:51.703-07:002015-10-02T17:23:51.703-07:00Great post. Quibble: the standard of living in cer...Great post. Quibble: the standard of living in certain urban areas is not only the size of the apartment but proximity to amenities such as museums, really good restaurants, stadiums, nightlife, other intelligent people. One might also argue a city with a good mass transportation network allows the consumer to dispense with expensive automobiles.<br /><br />I totally agree that everything possible to be done to increase the supply of housing in urban markets and also to rip down zoning restrictions, such as single family detached.<br /><br />However I do not see the residents of Brooklyn or Newport Beach deciding that more development is what their community needs.<br /><br />The Fed just needs to get comfortable with 3% inflation and call it a day.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-70406705466276005082015-10-02T15:57:52.224-07:002015-10-02T15:57:52.224-07:00In my alternate universe where San Francisco is fu...In my alternate universe where San Francisco is full of 40 story condo towers.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-91058642661682792622015-10-02T15:09:50.221-07:002015-10-02T15:09:50.221-07:001,500 sq ft is a small apartment?1,500 sq ft is a small apartment?Baconbaconhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13511082564082971086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-56232890611128013142015-10-02T11:29:58.192-07:002015-10-02T11:29:58.192-07:00It's tough. Misplaced anger is a powerful soc...It's tough. Misplaced anger is a powerful social force. It's very hard for whole groups of people to conclude that they shouldn't have been angry. It's the rhetorical equivalent of admitting, as a country, that we were wrong to go into a war. If my story is right, change would have to come slowly. I think I have developed a broad set of evidence that it would be nice to see widely aired.<br /><br />An example of the difficulty: I mentioned to Bob Murphy that a large amount of CPI inflation has been from rent inflation. Bob would be a natural supply-side supporter. But, he is a demand-side hawk. His reaction was to presume that the BEA's inflation estimates for rent are overstated. This would mean that measured inflation has been biased upward, so Bob would have to believe that there has been negligible inflation for nearly 20 years. Keep in mind, Bob thinks loose money was a core problem and one of Bob's biggest embarrassments since the crisis has been his prediction that we would see very high inflation after QE. Yet, to defend the idea that there was oversupply of housing, he was willing, at least momentarily, to believe that his loose money and inflation fears were even more off base than they seem.<br /><br />As I draw this to a close, it really seems like it lends itself to a book format. All of the evidence needs to be laid out in a self-contained, careful way, because human nature will lead a lot of readers to dismiss it with hand waving whose incoherence is difficult to understand without the willingness to patiently allow all the aspects of the story to be presented.<br /><br />I don't have any connections in the publishing business, and I'm not sure there is natural source of support for a story that is both supply-side and demand-side dovish. For large numbers of readers to let this story get into their heads, I think it would have to be published with some support from authority. The book, in an unorganized form, is basically here at the blog - it's practically written. But, I haven't begun the more difficult process (for me) of finding that support from authority. I don't know if it is possible.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-62632149749062899512015-10-02T11:01:39.003-07:002015-10-02T11:01:39.003-07:00Kevin, thank you again for such a clear narrative ...Kevin, thank you again for such a clear narrative of what we are doing wrong. I wonder if there is any way to get from your insights to a change in policy.Kenneth Dudahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10593455504357461005noreply@blogger.com