tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post4944754109048816666..comments2024-03-29T00:15:52.716-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: Housing: Part 271 - Another Canada quote.Kevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-7008236732985523852018-04-08T02:48:26.084-07:002018-04-08T02:48:26.084-07:00I read that Post and got it fine and informative.
...I read that Post and got it fine and informative.<br /><a href="http://www.barmandalevy.com/" rel="nofollow">Bar Mandalevy</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11365461196484400880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-16449379664737725962017-12-04T20:04:13.758-07:002017-12-04T20:04:13.758-07:00"One thing that seems clear is that a reducti..."One thing that seems clear is that a reduction of the MID could further constrain available housing inventory, which itself has helped to push home prices even higher in many places."<br /><br />This sort of logic seems common in real estate, and it seems so odd. A subsidy will be removed for asset owners, and this will cause prices to rise because inventory will be lower? Strange. But it's conventional as far as I can tell.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-29974578857744202072017-12-04T10:14:58.368-07:002017-12-04T10:14:58.368-07:00link for the above
http://www.calculatedriskblog....link for the above <br />http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/12/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-tax.htmlChuck Ericksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04313247742305688489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-12883134824016243362017-12-04T10:14:11.918-07:002017-12-04T10:14:11.918-07:00And Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk is findin...And Bill McBride over at Calculated Risk is finding exactly what Ben was predicting. And it looks like the new Tax bill will have an impact on all the high end homes on both coasts. <br /><br />Chuck E. Chuck Ericksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04313247742305688489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-14709890175337248142017-12-01T22:03:34.235-07:002017-12-01T22:03:34.235-07:00Good Lord. What are they drinking? Homeownership...Good Lord. What are they drinking? Homeownership has just barely begun to stabilize.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33264317909022643942017-12-01T21:48:50.346-07:002017-12-01T21:48:50.346-07:00https://www.aei.org/publication/august-2017-first-...https://www.aei.org/publication/august-2017-first-time-buyer-index-from-aeis-center-on-housing-markets-and-finance/comment-page-1/#comment-189386<br /><br />Meh. They say cut people off from credit to bring down housing prices. Mention supply in passing. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-10788908532219885952017-12-01T09:32:04.116-07:002017-12-01T09:32:04.116-07:00Cook County seems similar to the Closed Access cit...Cook County seems similar to the Closed Access cities in terms of permits issued and population growth, but the metro area allows quite a bit more housing expansion. It seems like Chicago is a sort of mixture of all the city types - a little bit of Dallas (suburbs expanding into farm areas), a little bit of Detroit (declining rust belt issues), a little bit of Closed Access (Cook Co. already built out and difficult to increase density), and a little bit of Washington DC (somewhat higher costs, some post-industrial economic advantages, attracting talent from other cities, some outmigration of low SES households, but not as much as the Closed Access cities).Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-23383281021488440352017-12-01T01:29:34.574-07:002017-12-01T01:29:34.574-07:00Any general thoughts on the Chicago housing market...Any general thoughts on the Chicago housing market that you might have? You mentioned it in the previous post's comments section, hence I'd be curious to hear.CBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07238083569337517167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-78534368677650509472017-11-28T08:08:41.296-07:002017-11-28T08:08:41.296-07:00If I had the time I would take a whole post to run...If I had the time I would take a whole post to run through the errors and contradictions in that article. It's a great example of how strong enough presumptions can be used to dismiss reality. Affordable housing in California will happen over that author's objections, not because they will be swayed.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-88501332127397534112017-11-28T07:26:16.335-07:002017-11-28T07:26:16.335-07:00Curious about your thoughts on this article. Have ...Curious about your thoughts on this article. Have you studied San Diego in particular (in theory few zoning restrictions?)...<br /><br />https://shelterforce.org/2016/06/21/the-high-costs-of-policy-shortfalls-in-housing/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-10487494533349258792017-11-28T04:02:18.865-07:002017-11-28T04:02:18.865-07:00Waaaayyy OT: any thoughts on bitcoin?
I am thinki...Waaaayyy OT: any thoughts on bitcoin?<br /><br />I am thinking something along the lines of money shortages.<br /><br />If we were on the gold standard only, we would get some radical deflations from time to time, especially in growth spurts (assuming a gold standard did not lead to a permanent recession). Gold would be worth more in spurts, in other words.<br /><br />just thinkin'<br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-47031410120383999922017-11-28T03:58:39.586-07:002017-11-28T03:58:39.586-07:00"The average (US) new home sale price spiked ..."The average (US) new home sale price spiked upward by $19,100 in October 2017 to reach a new record value of $400,200."<br /><br />I would say it is nearly complete: The industry is only building housing for the upper class. As directed by federal and local policies. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-29497924299719940132017-11-27T17:58:16.841-07:002017-11-27T17:58:16.841-07:00I am shorting the currency as my play (have been s...I am shorting the currency as my play (have been since ~1.05 iirc). Shorting cad banks might be worthwhile as well, though because most cad mortgages are full recourse I don’t know if it will be as lucrative as shorting us banks..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04197076994266473901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-8187597376383035732017-11-27T17:38:33.069-07:002017-11-27T17:38:33.069-07:00Great post. It is remarkable--property is the cruc...Great post. It is remarkable--property is the crucial structural impediment of our era, yet orthodox macro economists nibbled-number about wages and interest rates...Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-79052646316676347482017-11-27T12:03:27.405-07:002017-11-27T12:03:27.405-07:00Maybe. That might be the case in Canada and Austr...Maybe. That might be the case in Canada and Australia, where the very sparsely populated hinterlands mean that the high priced cities have more of a hold on the national economy. So, accommodating reasonable nominal growth while cities persist in inelastic housing supply has led to very high home prices.<br /><br />In the US, it is more a matter of migration. In the US, there are many 2nd & 3rd tier cities with reasonable economic potential. How it got out of hand in 2004-2005 was that migration out of the Closed Access cities became so high that it overwhelmed the Contagion cities, and that was what kicked the country into "bubble" mode, where we became intent on self-immolation. So, in the US, there would be some theoretical balancing point where economic growth triggered enough migration to allay urban housing costs but not so much that cities like Phoenix develop short-run supply inelasticity, too.<br /><br />But, while these things are interesting to think about, the government isn't capable of that sort of specificity. And, you're right, the politics is messy, and feed populist sentiment. Surely there is some better solution than self-imposed financial crises, though.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-53565850996914941142017-11-27T11:53:49.594-07:002017-11-27T11:53:49.594-07:00Yes, and I think you have...your work has been ver...Yes, and I think you have...your work has been very helpful. Here is the challenge: the spread of the "zoning narrative" is very slow. While the "fix" of "printing money" is very quick. These need to proceed side-by-side or the problem actually becomes worse in my opinion..this is the story of the last two decades.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-18743688728085342712017-11-27T11:42:54.182-07:002017-11-27T11:42:54.182-07:00Possibly. I am mainly focused on giving the public...Possibly. I am mainly focused on giving the public a new paradigm through which to view this. The gulf between the consensus view of what has happened and what I believe to be the accurate version is so wide that I think some marginal shift in public understanding would shift the political calculus in ways that change these dynamics. But, to be honest, there is so much work to do on the "just understand what's happening" front, that I don't think much about the political machinery aspect.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-39602588575495474032017-11-27T11:36:30.647-07:002017-11-27T11:36:30.647-07:00I fully agree. It may simply be that we need to ge...I fully agree. It may simply be that we need to get rents high enough that society begins to "demonize" urban landowners and political change becomes possible. I know this isn't a smooth process but I don't see an alternative. Under the current system, such landowners are simply too well-connected for any hopes of political change.<br /><br />Another idea is for governments to throw lots of money at "Tier 3" cities in hopes of building competitor to the existing "Tier 1 & 2" cities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-51540269763954555842017-11-27T11:31:50.403-07:002017-11-27T11:31:50.403-07:00True. The core policy change has to be allowing m...True. The core policy change has to be allowing more housing expansion in the high cost cities. Printing money only would be the means to try to stabilize balance sheets when supply caused home prices to decline to reasonable valuations. This is what is so corrosive about the housing supply problem. Economic growth - either real or nominal - shouldn't just line the pockets of a set portion of the citizenry, but if there is a cap on access to productive metropolitan economies, and ownership of real estate is the binding constraint to that access, then inevitably, any gains are captured.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-72826906605809223752017-11-27T11:23:18.339-07:002017-11-27T11:23:18.339-07:00If Canada were to "print a lot of money"...If Canada were to "print a lot of money" it would never be used to build "lots of houses." You are forgetting that under our current system money always finds it's way into the hands of those who profit from status quo. Printing money is actually counterproductive (increasing the influence of those who benefit from status quo) unless you've found better ways to channel that money in the first place...and i've yet to hear any good ideas on that front.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com