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Taking this idea very far at al...You're right. Taking this idea very far at all or trying to confirm it is difficult. And, your points about the current economy are totally right.<br /><br />On the options issue, though, I disagree. Regarding the return to equity holders, it is their future income and gains that matter. An option is a pre-commitment to pay employees based on future valuation changes. If this results in future dilution, that is the product of capital allocation decisions. Firms could simply buy shares at market when options are exercised to sterilize the effect on shares outstanding. I think it is best to think of that as the baseline scenario, in order to keep clear exactly what the transaction is.<br /><br />But, I do wonder how much of the current risk premium picture is a product of your points about the winner take all effects, which would create an incentive for high levels of investment in long term earnings potential, even though the prevalence of this factor probably feeds the high risk premium that I would otherwise associate with high earnings. So the current economy is like a mix of 1970s and 1990s. Although, I would expect to see more of a bifurcation among firms of very high PEs and very low PEs. There are a decent number of high PE firms, but I don't see many firms with PEs in the range that was typical in the 1970s.<br /><br />Maybe that's because firms incorporate many of these factors within one package - like Apple, which has huge intangibles, a large cash holding, and a low P/E ratio after adjusting for cash.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-26825798054982816602015-06-15T14:01:43.927-07:002015-06-15T14:01:43.927-07:00My take is that you're probably conflating ort...My take is that you're probably conflating orthogonal phenomena. Overall corporate returns on capital and margins are not low. The investment golf ball shows up a little differently inside the python these days, not because of overall risk aversion, time preference or returns on capital, but because of the accelerated scale and winner take all effects that have exploded in some corners of the world. 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