tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post926055393497043656..comments2024-03-28T11:48:09.419-07:00Comments on Idiosyncratic Whisk: The Housing Shortage is Lowering Real IncomesKevin Erdmannhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-63521297146801096772019-07-23T05:17:42.599-07:002019-07-23T05:17:42.599-07:00The post is very nice. I just shared on my Faceboo...The post is very nice. I just shared on my Facebook Account.Organic Facebook Likeshttp://www.articles.howto-tips.com/How-To-do-things-in-2019/6-vital-methods-will-improve-organic-reach-facebook-accountnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-89124883455708487212019-07-23T04:12:47.380-07:002019-07-23T04:12:47.380-07:00I am happy to find this post very useful for me, a...I am happy to find this post very useful for me, as it contains lot of information. I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.Buy Facebook Page Likeshttp://www.articles.mybikaner.com/Articles-of-2019/what-importance-fb-and-why-people-buy-fb-page-likesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-76690272164130491502018-09-16T01:06:00.282-07:002018-09-16T01:06:00.282-07:00You could promote your business by adding as sever...You could promote your business by adding as several facebook likes as you can, as people constantly seek brand names and also products that have bunch of likes on facebook. <a href="http://ranklikes.com/" rel="nofollow">buying usa facebook likes</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10574842818514510929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-60294896949834602332018-03-23T02:47:05.549-07:002018-03-23T02:47:05.549-07:00Are you currently searching for ways to get worldw...Are you currently searching for ways to get worldwide popularity instantly? You simply require to Buy Facebook Followers to become well-known online. <br /><a href="https://www.boostfollower.com/buy-facebook-followers/" rel="nofollow">buying facebook followers</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17883905887651223486noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-18086167617663780582017-02-08T21:25:02.428-07:002017-02-08T21:25:02.428-07:00For getting a higher exposure for your facebook ac...For getting a higher exposure for your facebook account, Persons spend money to Buy Facebook Followers to conveniently get hype on world-wide-web. <a href="https://www.boostfollower.com/buy-facebook-followers/" rel="nofollow">buy followers for fb</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03814376556744241650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-87989037976978449512016-01-13T05:42:12.811-07:002016-01-13T05:42:12.811-07:00site very helpful for reader and get more informat...site very helpful for reader and get more information here, and i found this blog good infomation and sharing about all<br /><br /><a href="http://www.lordriver.com/" title="" rel="nofollow">Lordriver</a><br /><a href="http://www.soft-full.com/" title="" rel="nofollow">soft-full</a><br /><a href="http://www.zonedrivers.blogspot.com/" title="" rel="nofollow">zonedrivers</a><br /><a href="http://www.setupdrivers.com/" title="" rel="nofollow">setupdrivers</a><br /><a href="http://www.getdriversprinterintop.blogspot.com/" title="" rel="nofollow">Get Driver </a>brandonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17571094158349156381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-27160360496268901292015-03-16T03:01:10.445-07:002015-03-16T03:01:10.445-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Hill Country Discount Realtyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09408983002087022619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-51581765459985524272015-03-08T22:27:10.592-07:002015-03-08T22:27:10.592-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.thesis writing onlinehttp://www.writeversity.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-39654983158089848342015-03-04T04:26:28.973-07:002015-03-04T04:26:28.973-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-14840153651846677882014-12-23T11:40:45.609-07:002014-12-23T11:40:45.609-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07652084600789437133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-12021891939223261132014-11-06T17:33:28.486-07:002014-11-06T17:33:28.486-07:00Sorry to hear that.Sorry to hear that.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-81669301264758503542014-11-06T16:55:44.647-07:002014-11-06T16:55:44.647-07:00TravisV here.
Thanks Kevin. By the way, I'm d...TravisV here.<br /><br />Thanks Kevin. By the way, I'm dealing with health issues at the moment so my mind isn't all the way there. Hopefully I'll be better by next week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-75902670719969633752014-11-05T14:05:30.476-07:002014-11-05T14:05:30.476-07:00I touched on that here:
http://idiosyncraticwhisk...I touched on that here:<br /><br />http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-absurdity-of-blaming-capitalism-for_13.html<br /><br />That agricultural land was productive capital, whereas the housing stock is for consumption, and its place in a middle class household's portfolio is often basically a pre-commitment of the household's expected future returns to human capital. It is consumption smoothing with a bank as the intermediary between the current household and its future self.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-13411504235028562972014-11-05T13:52:28.270-07:002014-11-05T13:52:28.270-07:00TravisV here.
Here's a quick Yglesias analysi...TravisV here.<br /><br />Here's a quick Yglesias analysis of Piketty indicating that land rents are a huge component of the gains the top 1% has made over the years.........<br /><br />http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/02/03/piketty_and_land_ricardo_s_return.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-26189386153061617132014-11-05T13:04:08.989-07:002014-11-05T13:04:08.989-07:00Thanks Travis. Skimming the article, I don't ...Thanks Travis. Skimming the article, I don't see any attempt at collecting data on rents over time. The relationship between rents and prices could explain the extent to which factors they consider are in play.<br /><br />Until I see someone tackle that issue, these articles are a little disappointing to me because the recent disconnection between prices and rents is the source of interest in the topic, but then everyone wants to lump the recent price movements in with some longer narrative that usually would suggest rising rents, also. The reference to Ricardo seems especially misplaced in this regard. Until that happens, it seems like this work adds more heat than light.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-54551119969978084522014-11-05T12:17:50.794-07:002014-11-05T12:17:50.794-07:00TravisV here.
You might be interested in this new...TravisV here.<br /><br />You might be interested in this new paper on home price trends (via Arnold Kling):<br /><br />http://www.voxeu.org/article/home-prices-1870<br /><br />"House price fluctuations take centre stage in recent macroeconomic debates, but little is known about their long-run evolution. This column presents new house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Real house prices display a pronounced hockey-stick pattern over the past 140 years. They stayed constant from the 19th to the mid-20th century, but rose strongly in the second half of the 20th century. Sharply increasing land prices, not construction costs, were the key driver of this trend."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-74659095461231681382014-11-03T22:26:21.564-07:002014-11-03T22:26:21.564-07:00Sorry Benjamin. My fat finger on my smartphone er...Sorry Benjamin. My fat finger on my smartphone erased your comment. Here it is, I think, for posterity:<br /><br />Kevin:<br /><br />On the Phillips Curve, I go nuts. I think the last time there was a relationship between labor and inflation was the 1960s-70s. <br /><br />I have run two business (never made much money, btw) and been in many more as an employee or freelancer. Every business i was in enjoyed lowered unit costs when production went up. Growth for many years was deflationary.<br /><br />Moreover, I think growth inspires investment in plant equipment and training. <br /><br />The more I look at it, in practical terms the 1960s-70s were an aberration, when Big Labor had clout and so did Big Steel, Big Auto, and stodgy retailers alike Sears. Little foreign trade. High MTRs. Heavily regulated transportation, including by price (and regulatory capture). <br /><br />Economists never have jobs in the real world, as leads Fed economists.<br /><br />I would say for several years growth would not be inflationary. To get to 5% inflation now would take honking growth for years. <br />Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-70102101974230713152014-11-03T21:26:56.759-07:002014-11-03T21:26:56.759-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-71619969644329243292014-11-03T12:16:11.873-07:002014-11-03T12:16:11.873-07:00Glenn,
Here is a post with a graph of mortgage pa...Glenn,<br /><br />Here is a post with a graph of mortgage payments compared to median income. They are currently very low.<br /><br />http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-counterintuitive-conundrum-in.html<br /><br />Here is a post with a graph that compares mortgage payments to rent payments over time. Again, owning is cheap compared to renting now relative to any time in the past 30 years.<br /><br />http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2014/04/a-very-basic-housing-post.htmlKevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-78154997054499172692014-11-03T11:59:20.212-07:002014-11-03T11:59:20.212-07:00http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/11/03/share-of...http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/11/03/share-of-first-time-home-buyers-hits-27-year-low/<br /><br />All available evidence continues to point in the direction of young would-be households being priced out of the household formation market. You continue to insist the solution is higher prices. I continue to be very confused.<br /><br />"Mortgage debt service ratios are extremely low."<br /><br />So what? This is true for two reasons:<br /><br />1) Households have spent the last 5 years leveraging, in response to the recession and the income crisis.<br /><br />2) Household formation has collapsed, because housing is too expensive, relative to the long-run path of expected incomes. If you can't afford the property, you won't take out the loan (at any rate).<br /><br />This strikes me as a chicken-and-egg problem. You say low average debt-service payments is evidence that housing prices are too low. I say just the opposite. There are two reasons this could be true: the average housing price has fallen, but mortgage activity has stayed the same or increased (a prices are too low story), and housing prices have done anything, but mortgage activity has fallen (a deleveraging story). The reality is clearly the latter, which raises the question of why households are not borrowing.<br /><br />Forget for a moment that if housing prices fell, the marginal absence of borrowing in the current environment becomes irrelevant (since the borrowing constraint has relaxed). You want to say that the problem is not that housing is too expensive, but that borrowers cannot get loans. Again, so what? Why is the lower-loan-requirements solution necessarily better than the lower-housing-prices solution?<br /><br />There will be no recovery in construction until existing inventory clears. Existing inventory will not clear until household formation picks up. Household formation will not pickup until real house prices as a share of income fall.Glennnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-21647060136661131162014-11-02T21:45:45.503-07:002014-11-02T21:45:45.503-07:00Thanks Benjamin.
1) On the one hand, where zoning...Thanks Benjamin.<br /><br />1) On the one hand, where zoning is too restrictive, it seems like we are definitely leaving $100 bills on the ground. On the other hand, I wonder how this differs from a world where California simply had less buildable land. It would have some of the same effects as zoning restrictions, but we wouldn't be wondering how much better the economy would be if California was bigger. So, it seems like there are two different problems here. Regulatory building constraints are a constraint on supply, but they don't necessarily create a dysfunctional market, given the constraints. On the other hand, the current credit market and monetary constraints on building reflect supply constraints that are a product of a dysfunctional market, where many potential participants would reasonably enter the market, but simply can't get access to it.<br />I'm not sure what all the implications and practical differences of that are, but it seems like food for thought.<br /><br />2) Thanks for the link. I think the labor share of nonfarm business income comes from the Productivity and Costs report from the BLS. I'm not as familiar with that data.<br /><br />http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm<br /><br />The Phillips Curve stuff seems like it assumes the causation goes from wages to inflation. It seems to me that it is likely to go the other way. If the Fed tends to be following naturally fluctuating cycles, then monetary policy will be pro-cyclical, and inflation will correlate with increasing employment. If the Fed tends to create inflation when real interest rates and real wages are rising, then we'd see this Phillips Curve correlation. I don't think there is much doubt that this is the case, is there? The relationship has been weak lately because employment is recovering in spite of the fact that the Fed has retained a hawkish stance throughout the recovery.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-33909086849210318742014-11-02T21:02:42.993-07:002014-11-02T21:02:42.993-07:00Thank you Michael.Thank you Michael.Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-2146940809130129972014-11-02T20:24:17.702-07:002014-11-02T20:24:17.702-07:00Kevin: Excellent blogging of late (per usual).
Co...Kevin: Excellent blogging of late (per usual).<br /><br />Couple ideas: 1. Urbanization. As any nation urbanizes, land values in urban areas soar. Housing becomes more expensive. I see this in my native Los Angeles. Housing is out of sight---as so many people want to live in the city, and not in the rural Midwest. This desire or requirement to congregate leads to higher housing costs, exacerbated by local building constraints. <br /><br />2. See this report from Western Asset Management. Inside it shows declining labor share of nonfarm business income. I actually e-mailed the guy to get an exact cite, but I think he never got my e-mail, due to spam filters. <br /><br />http://www.westernasset.com/us/en/pdfs/commentary/JanetYellenOnflation201304.pdf<br /><br />Keep up the great work!<br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-27010484437728495922014-11-02T20:14:50.406-07:002014-11-02T20:14:50.406-07:00Very good post. This seems somewhat analogous to ...Very good post. This seems somewhat analogous to Lars Svensson's criticism of the Riksbank. I believe his argument was that the attempt to reduce household indebtedness via tight money would counterproductively lead to a greater household debt burden. You have a different story with some striking similarities.<br /><br /> <br /><br />Michael Byrneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10782499619253103724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1110014885778996459.post-17271084048600834082014-11-02T13:49:33.479-07:002014-11-02T13:49:33.479-07:00Thanks for the links, Lorenzo. I personally know ...Thanks for the links, Lorenzo. I personally know many people who bemoan "food deserts" and who also march against Wal-Mart. Much of the progressive sense of local egalitarianism seems to come from an aesthetic discomfort with the juxtaposition of people who happen to have different sets of opportunities. This is an interesting dilemma, which I think http://euvoluntaryexchange.blogspot.com/ is doing a commendable job trying to address, although much of the prose over there is a bit dense for me to grasp.<br /><br />The unintended consequences of these tendencies do seem to be a problem.<br /><br />Can you expand on your last sentence?Kevin Erdmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07431566729667544886noreply@blogger.com