Friday, August 22, 2014

Readings on Fed control and risk premiums

Eugene Fama, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, from December 2013:
In sum, the evidence says that Fed actions with respect to its target rate have little effect on long-term interest rates, and there is substantial uncertainty about the extent of Fed control of short-term rates. I think this conclusion is also implied by earlier work, but the problem typically goes unstated in the relevant studies, which generally interpret the evidence with a strong bias toward a powerful Fed.

An interesting attempt at isolating compensated equity risk, using a measure called "Excess Conditional Value at Risk":
Research that has led to the low-volatility anomaly in cross-sectional stocks from a similar universe indicates that volatility is not compensated with a volatility premium. The authors find evidence of a risk premium, but it depends on the definition or measure of risk. Tail risk measures the probability of having significant losses, and should be what investors care about the most. This article investigates several risk measures, including volatility and tail risk, and finds that volatility is not compensated. Tail risk, however, is compensated with higher expected return in both U.S. and non-U.S. equity funds.

No comments:

Post a Comment