Random aside: Isn't it strange how the Fed and other observers are referring to the implementation of a completely novel approach to raising interest rates by using interest on reserves as "normalization" of monetary policy?
Manufacturing is doing fine (for now). It's just that the fall in oil drilling has been severe. But we are, indeed, seeing recent bearish indicators: https://againstjebelallawz.wordpress.com/2015/12/17/recession-2016/
I think pithom makes a good point, but still a "strong dollar" is cutting into US manufacturing and travel industries...the Fed should counteract by printing more money....but there is still a large contingent of people who rhapsodize about a strong dollar, evidently conflating an exchange rate with national strength, or possibly "the good ol' days."
Look for another year of sluggish growth, maybe worse
Thanks pithom and Ben. That manufacturing output per worker graph is interesting. Are we about to see it turn up again, or are we going to see an unprecedented period of stagnation?
This is the scarier graph:
ReplyDeletehttps://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Vzx
Manufacturing is doing fine (for now). It's just that the fall in oil drilling has been severe. But we are, indeed, seeing recent bearish indicators:
https://againstjebelallawz.wordpress.com/2015/12/17/recession-2016/
I think pithom makes a good point, but still a "strong dollar" is cutting into US manufacturing and travel industries...the Fed should counteract by printing more money....but there is still a large contingent of people who rhapsodize about a strong dollar, evidently conflating an exchange rate with national strength, or possibly "the good ol' days."
ReplyDeleteLook for another year of sluggish growth, maybe worse
Thanks pithom and Ben. That manufacturing output per worker graph is interesting. Are we about to see it turn up again, or are we going to see an unprecedented period of stagnation?
ReplyDelete